Calibration and uncertainty analysis of a regional fault zone groundwater flow and solute transport model using Nonlinear Least-Square Regression

Xuyan Wang

In the proceedings of: GEO2011: 64th Canadian Geotechnical Conference, 14th Pan-American Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, 5th Pan-American Conference on Teaching and Learning of Geotechnical Engineering

Session: Hydrogeology and Seepage

ABSTRACT: The Nonlinear Least-Square Regression (NLSR) approach was used to estimate model parameter values in the calibration of a transient groundwater flow and solute transport model of a heterogeneous fractured rock aquifer system. Regression statistics including sensitivity, relative composite sensitivity and correlation coefficients were calculated for analysing the parameter uncertainty. With the presented case study we demonstrated that the NLSR technique provides a simple way to quantify parameter uncertainty and to improve calibration of a groundwater flow and solute transport model of a complex fault zone system.

RÉSUMÉ: La méthode des moindres carrées non- roche fracturée de manière hétérogène, dans un système aquifère souterrain. Cette régression statistique, incluant le coefficient de sensibilité, la sensibilité relative composée et le coefficient de corrélation, fut employée pour déterminer le paramètre

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