PROBABILISTIC SLOPE STABILITY ANALYSIS OF REINFORCED SLOPES BY FINITE ELEMENT METHOD

Ning Luo, Richard J. Bathurst, Sina Javankhoshdel

In the proceedings of: GeoQuébec 2015: 68th Canadian Geotechnical Conference & 7th Canadian Permafrost Conference

Session: Uncertainty, Reliability, and Risk / Incertitude, fiabilité, et risque

ABSTRACT: A probabilistic slope stability analysis tool for geosynthetic reinforced slopes (and embankments) that combines shear strength reduction method (SSR) with probability theory was developed using a finite element method (FEM) source code for unreinforced slopes. The original numerical model in combination with the shear strength reduction method and Monte Carlo simulation (MC) was first used to compute probability of failure and factor of safety for simple unreinforced slopes with purely cohesive and cohesive-frictional soil. The results are compared to those from combined limit equilibrium method (LEM) and probability theory recently published in the literature. The results are shown to be in good agreement. The validated FEM code was then modified to investigate reinforced slope cases. To verify the new code, a general reinforced slope case was examined using the new program and the FEM software package SIGMA/W. Displacements and reinforcement strains calculated using both programs agreed well. The utility of the new code in combination with Monte Carlo simulation and the shear strength reduction method is demonstrated by a number of examples. The general approach applied to reinforced soil slopes is novel and offers a powerful tool to relate conventional notions of factor of safety for reinforced soil slopes to margins of safety described by more meaningful probability of failure.

RÉSUMÉ: qui combine la méthode de réduction de la résistance au cisaillement (SSR) avec la théorie probabilistique, a été développé en utilisant un utilisé pour calculer la probabilité de rupture, ainsi que le facteur de sécurité pour des pentes non renforcées simples avec des sols purement cohérents et cohérents-frictionnels. Les résultats sont comparés à ceux de la méthode es récemment dans la littérature. Les résultats vérifier le nouveau code, un cas général de pente renforcée a été examiné en utilisant le nouveau programme et le logiciel SIGMA/W (FEM). Les déplacements et les déformations renforcés calculés par les deux programmes es est novatrice et offre un outil puissant pour relier les notions conventionnelles de facteur de sécurité pour les pentes renforcées aux marges de sécurité décrites par des probabilités de rupture plus significatives.

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