Reliability Based Analysis of the Mt.PolleyTailings Dam

J Lam

In the proceedings of: GeoVancouver 2016: 69th Canadian Geotechnical Conference

Session: CASE HISTORIES - I Tailings Dam Site Characterization & Design

ABSTRACT: The Mount Polley Tailings Dam breach reminds us of the fact that despite our confidence in established engineering standards, tailings dams continue to fail at an unacceptable rate. The traditional deterministic design approach used for the Mount Polley Tailings Dam is an imprecise approach that conceals uncertainty, and places the designer in the vulnerable position of critical decision making without the proper tool. In order to help the designer, the owner, and public better understand the uncertainties and risks associated with design, the implementation of the probabilistic design approach on the Mount Polley Tailings Dam is demonstrated in this study. The probability of failure produced from this study is a good reflection of actual dam performance, and should be used to complement the factor of safety for future designs.

RÉSUMÉ: La rupture du barrage de résidus de Mount Polley nous rappelle que malgré notre confiance dans les normes d'ingénierie pour mieux pour le barrage de résidus de Mount Polley. La probabilité de défaillance qui résulte dans cette étude est un bon reflet de la performance réelle du barrage et doit être utilisée avec le coefficient de sécurité dans les analyses à l'avenir.

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