The Impact of Climate Change on the Performance of Oil Sands Reclamation Covers: A Comparison of Multiple General Circulation Models and Representative Concentration Pathways

Md. Shahabul Alam, Lee Barbour, Amin Elshorbagy, Mingbin Huang

In the proceedings of: GeoOttawa 2017: 70th Canadian Geotechnical Conference; 12th joint with IAH-CNC

Session: Mining / Oil and Gas

ABSTRACT: Climate change projections based on General Circulation Models (GCMs) show increases in precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration for northern Alberta during the 21st century. The uncertainties in the projected changes of the water balance components (i.e., actual evapotranspiration, AET; and net percolation, NP) are important considerations in the design of oil sands reclamation covers. This study explores the uncertainties in the projected changes to AET and NP of an oil sands reclamation cover and natural soil profile. These projections are based on recently updated GCMs (CanESM2, BCC-CSM1.1, and IPSL-CM5A-LR) and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) over the period 2070-2099. The results indicate that both AET and NP will increase in the future at both study sites for almost all the GCMs and RCPs relative to baseline values. However, the degree of increase is highly dependent on the selection of GCM and RCP.

RÉSUMÉ: Les projections des changements climatiques basées sur les modèles généraux de circulation (MGC) montrent des e siècle. Les incertitudes des changements prévus des éléments du bilan eau (évapotranspiration réelle et percolation nette) sont des considérations importantes dans la conception des couvertures de restauration des sables bitumineux. Cette écemment mis à jour (CanESM2, BCC-CSM1.1 et IPSL-CM5A-LR) et trois voies de concentration représentatives (RCP2,6, 4,5 et nette dans les deux sites témoins pour presque tous les MGC et RCP selon leur choix relativement aux valeurs de base.

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