Estimate of Overall Probability of Failure of Rock Slopes Considering Multiple Failure Mechanisms

Jin Dong Du

In the proceedings of: GeoOttawa 2017: 70th Canadian Geotechnical Conference; 12th joint with IAH-CNC

Session: Rock Mechanics III

ABSTRACT: When designing a rock slope with the potential for multiple failure mechanisms, it is desirable for an engineer to understand the overall probability of failure (PoFoverall) of the slope. However, the software packages currently available to most engineers are only capable of calculating probability of failure (PoF) of some secondary-level failure modes belonging to one or more but not all failure mechanisms. In this paper, the author introduces Hunting Equations Method to address this issue.

RÉSUMÉ: Lors de la conception d'une pente de roche avec un potentiel de mécanismes multiples d'échec, il est souhaitable pour un ingénieur de comprendre la probabilité globale d'échec (PoFoverall) de la pente. Cependant, les logiciels de mécanique des roches actuellement disponibles pour la plupart des ingénieurs ne sont capables que de calculer la probabilité d'échec (PoF) de certains modes de défaillance de niveau secondaire appartenant à un ou plusieurs mais pas à tous les mécanismes d'échec. Dans cet article, l'auteur introduit la méthode Hunting Equations pour résoudre ce problème.

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