Forecasting Failure of Water Mains Under Climate Variations: Stochastic Modeling Process

ABSTRACT: Climate change has the potential to affect substantially the operational condition and lifespan of buried utilities, including pipelines transporting water, gas, and sewer. The climate of Canada is known to vary spatially and temporally, and these variations can cause damage to buried infrastructures. The physical mechanisms that negatively impact the condition of water mains and can lead to their failure are complex and not fully understood. High uncertainty could result from forecasting the potential damage and the need to replace or repair water mains before catastrophic failures. Although climate risks have become a significant concern to cities and municipalities in Canada, only a few studies have addressed the impact of climate variations on the failures of water mains. In this study, we present a stochastic modeling process for failure forecasting of water mains at selected locations in the Cities of London (Ontario) and Quebec, Canada.