Simulation of a Canadian Shield lake hydrosystem and its vulnerability to climate and land cover changes

James Harris, Marie Larocque, Sylvain Gagne, Simon Lavoie Lavallee

Dans les comptes rendus d’articles de la conférence: GeoNiagara 2021: 74th Canadian Geotechnical Conference; 14th joint with IAH-CNC

ABSTRACT: This research project is part of the pluridisciplinary study of the resilience of the Lake Papineau hydrosystem and the biodiversity of its wetlands. Lake Papineau is situated in the Kenauk Nature private reserve located halfway between Ottawa and Montreal. This reserve covers 260 km2 of forest and includes numerous lakes, of which Lake Papineau is the largest. In partnership with Kenauk Nature, Nature Conservancy of Canada, and the Ouranos consortium, this project aims to simulate the dominant processes of the Lake Papineau hydrosystem and evaluate the impact of future anthropic pressures and climate change. A model of the study domain (880 km2) was developed using MODFLOW in order to simulate groundwater flow within the Canadian Shield fractured bedrock. The model was first calibrated in steady-state utilising water table depth measurements available across the investigative zone. It was then recalibrated in transient-state with project-specific datasets: hydrometric (5 streamflow stations), piezometric (6 observation wells), and recharge (simulated using the surface-water balance model, HydroBudget) that were either available for the 1964-2020 period or reconstituted using methods such as artificial neural networks. The factors exerting the greatest influence on the water budget of Lake Papineau were identified through the implementation of the MODFLOW LAK module. The calibrated hydrodynamic model evaluates the influence of climate and land use changes on the hydrology of Lake Papineau according to various scenarios combining the influence of temperature and precipitation changes anticipated at the 2100 horizon and changes in land cover characteristics. The results of this project will help formulate recommendations for the conservation of the Kenauk territory in view of future climate and land cover changes. This project will serve as an example for conceptualizing the dynamics of a lake hydrosystem in connection with its aquifer and could be applied to studies in similar geologic and climatic contexts.

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