A framework for parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification and pumping optimization of sharp-interface seawater intrusion models
Cecile Coulon, Jean-Michel Lemieux, Alexandre Pryet
Dans les comptes rendus d’articles de la conférence: GeoNiagara 2021: 74th Canadian Geotechnical Conference; 14th joint with IAH-CNCABSTRACT: In coastal areas, seawater intrusion into aquifers threatens fresh groundwater resources and can lead to the salinization of pumping wells. While numerical models are extensively used to provide decision-support to groundwater managers, the implementation of parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis in seawater intrusion models remains limited. The short simulation times afforded by sharp interface models, which do not explicitly simulate mixing between freshwater and seawater, allow for the implementation of these two steps. We developed a framework for parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis of regional-scale sharp-interface models. The framework was implemented for a freshwater lens in the Magdalen Islands (Quebec, Canada) using MODFLOW-SWI2. Parameter estimation was constrained by both freshwater head observations as well as saltwater interface observations extracted from deep wells and geophysical surveys. A linear-based approach was used to quantify the uncertainty of several model outputs, such as interface elevations at the municipal pumping wells. The model was then used to optimize the well field pumping rates under expected climate change effects, and to explore the propagation of uncertainty into the pumping optimization procedure. A linear optimization algorithm was linked with the model to maximize the total safe pumping rate, avoiding well salinization and respecting technical constraints of the wells. Evaluating the propagation of uncertainty in both the postprocessing steps and the pumping optimization procedure, provided insight into the impact of uncertainty quantification on the resulting optimal pumping scenarios.
Please include this code when submitting a data update: GEO2021_214
Retrouver cet article:
Les membres de la Société canadienne de géotechnique peuvent accéder à cet article, ainsi qu'à tous les autres articles de la Conférence Géotechnique Canadienne, dans le Espace membre. Les comptes rendus d'articles sont également disponibles dans de nombreuses bibliothèques.
Citer cet article:
Coulon, Cecile, Lemieux, Jean-Michel, Pryet, Alexandre (2021) A framework for parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification and pumping optimization of sharp-interface seawater intrusion models in GEO2021. Ottawa, Ontario: Canadian Geotechnical Society.
@article{Coulon_GEO2021_214,
author = Cecile Coulon, Jean-Michel Lemieux, Alexandre Pryet,
title = A framework for parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification and pumping optimization of sharp-interface seawater intrusion models ,
year = 2021
}
title = A framework for parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification and pumping optimization of sharp-interface seawater intrusion models ,
year = 2021
}