Numerical failure prediction of the Sentinel sea stack formation at Hopewell Rocks Provincial Park with input from UAV-based photogrammetry and erosion records

Hyslop, A., Day, J.J., Kruse, S., Snair, K.

Dans les comptes rendus d’articles de la conférence: GeoCalgary 2022: 75th Canadian Geotechnical Conference

Session: T10

ABSTRACT: Sea stacks are natural pillars of rock that have been detached by wave action and other erosional processes from adjacent cliff-lined shores. The Hopewell Rocks Provincial Park in New Brunswick, Canada, which is situated along the coast of the Bay of Fundy, hosts numerous sea stacks. Rockfalls from the cliff and sea stacks occasionally occur but no system is in place to predict future occurrences. This study presents a forecast stability analysis of the Sentinel sea stack formation using 3D finite element numerical models, with geometrical input from UAV-based 3D SfM photogrammetry models to predict the time to failure of the formation. Four scenarios were analyzed including the 2021 geometry of the formation, as well as three simulated reductions in the widths of the erosion zone. The rate of erosion was determined to be approximately 5 mm/year by comparison of mid-20th century and 2021 photographs. Results from the numerical models indicate that failure will likely occur in approximately 275 to 335 years after 2021. Overall, the findings of this study provide valuable information that can be used to evaluate the risk to public safety of sea stack collapse impacting geotourism at the Park.

Please include this code when submitting a data update: GEO2022_293

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